What is a bull market vs bear market?
Key Takeaways
Bull markets tend to last longer than bear markets with an average duration of 6.6 years. The average duration of a bear market is 1.3 years. The average cumulative gain over the course of a bull market is 339%. The average cumulative loss over the course of a bear market is 38%.
The Bull Market: A Symbol of Power and Optimism
Conversely, a “bull market” is characterized by a sustained upward trend in stock prices, the commonly accepted definition is when stock prices rise by at least 20%. The term “bull” in this context stems from the bullish nature of a charging bull.
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
The problem with a bear market is that you can never tell whether you're at the beginning, middle, or end of it. Imagine putting all your investable funds into a bear market that just got underway. You have several months to go (you just don't know it yet).
The longest bull market started in March 2009, near the end of the Great Recession, and roamed Wall Street for almost 11 years.
The Last Bull Run: A Recap
The most recent significant bull run occurred in 2020 and extended into the early months of 2021. Cryptocurrencies, notably Bitcoin and Ethereum, experienced a surge in price, reaching unprecedented all-time highs.
One way to capitalize on the rising prices of a bull market is to buy stocks early on and sell them before they reach their peak. In a bear market, where there is more loss potential, investing in equities should be done with great prudence, since you are likely to incur a loss — at least initially.
Bull Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Return |
---|---|---|
September 2001 to January 2002 | 3 months | +21.4% |
October 2002 to October 2007 | 60 months | +101.5% |
March 2009 to February 2020 | 132 months | +400.5% |
March 2020 to January 2022 | 21 month | +114.4% |
What was the longest bear market in history?
The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 965 days or 2.6 years. dot-com crash in March 2000 is technically the longest (a drop of 19.9% in 1990 nearly derailed that bull, but just missed the bear threshold).
The opening period (9:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time) is often one of the best hours of the day for day trading, offering the biggest moves in the shortest amount of time. A lot of professional day traders stop trading around 11:30 a.m. because that is when volatility and volume tend to taper off.
Whether this new bull market will continue or another downturn is looming, stock prices will bounce back eventually. By simply riding out the storm and staying invested, you'll be ready to take advantage of those rising prices over the long haul.
Economic downturn or recession
However, economic indicators can change, and if there are signs of an economic downturn or recession, it can trigger a reversal in market sentiment. Factors such as slowing economic growth, rising inflation, or geopolitical tensions can contribute to the end of a bull run.
The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official. The onset of a new bull market has historically been a very reliable stock market indicator.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
Short strategies: Short selling, put options or inverse exchange-traded funds are all ways to try and make money in the short term during a bear market.
While stock prices may decrease, this rarely directly impacts the housing market. Whether they're buying or renting, people still need homes, and businesses still need spaces to operate in during a bear market. This makes real estate investing a viable option for investors who want to stay active during a bear market.
In fact, bull markets often begin when conditions appear most challenging. This highlights the importance of staying invested and making disciplined, appropriate adjustments throughout the downturns to help put you in a position to best participate in the upside as the transition to a new bull market occurs.
However, as a singular event, the stock market crash itself did not cause the Great Depression that followed. In fact, only approximately 10 percent of American households held stock investments and speculated in the market; yet nearly a third would lose their lifelong savings and jobs in the ensuing depression.
Who is the biggest bull in the stock market?
Jhunjhunwala was often referred to as the "Big Bull of India", and was widely known for his stock market predictions and bullish outlooks.
The market, while experiencing a lot of volatility in the 1970s including a 50% drawdown from the 1973 peak of 120 to 1974 trough of 63, roughly held flat from 1970 to 1980 in the 90-110 level. Of course, that outcome was no consolation for equity holders during that period, but fundamental earnings tripled!
The average Bull Market period lasted 6.6 years with an average cumulative total return of 339%. From when the index closes at least 20% down from its previous high close, through the lowest close reached after it has fallen 20% or more. Source: First Trust Advisors L.P., Bloomberg.
Bulls go bigger — Both bull and bear markets are normal and common. The S&P 500 Index has experienced 27 of each since 1928 (FIGURE 1), although bulls have tended to be stronger and longer. On average, bull markets have gained 115% over 2.7 years while bear markets have lost 35% and lasted less than a year.
Popular exit strategies include stop-loss orders to limit losses, take-profit orders to lock in gains, trailing stop-losses to capture profits in trending markets, using technical indicators to identify reversal points and time-based exits.
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