Are We in a Bull Market Yet? | Morgan Stanley (2024)

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Are We in a Bull Market Yet? | Morgan Stanley? ›

Key Takeaways. Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.

The current bull market started in October '22, which means it is now just under 19 months old. Would you believe that if the bull ended here and now this would make it the shortest bull market ever? That's right, most bull markets last much longer, with the past 12 bull markets averaging more than five years in total.

Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.

SPX) , opens new tab confirmed on Friday that it has been in a bull market since October 2022, as it notched a record high close for the first time in two years. The session's gains were fueled by chipmakers surging on AI optimism and investor bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024.

Morgan Stanley economists anticipate U.S. growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, compared with 2.5% in 2023. Year-over-year growth is likely to moderate toward the end of 2024 with fourth-quarter GDP growth of 2.1%, compared with 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

There's good news when it comes to the average length of market downturns and upswings: Bull markets, on average, last far longer than bear markets. According to data from investment group Bespoke, the average S&P 500 bull market since 1929 has lasted 1,011 days -- or just under three years.

Unlike the rapidly dwindling balance in your brokerage account, cash will still be in your pocket or in your bank account in the morning. However, while moving to cash might feel good mentally and help you avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be a wise move over the long term.

Anthony Denier, CEO of the trading platform Webull, says he believes the stock market will ultimately post a positive return in 2024 as investors anticipate interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, he adds, we probably won't see as big of a rally as we did in 2023.

The market sees a greater than 80% chance of at least five rate cuts from current levels by the end of 2024. Investor optimism about the economic outlook has improved dramatically from a year ago, but there's still a risk that Fed policy tightening could tip the economy into a recession in 2024.

At what age should you get out of the stock market? ›

There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.

Global recovery is steady but slow and differs by region

The baseline forecast is for the world economy to continue growing at 3.2 percent during 2024 and 2025, at the same pace as in 2023.

As a result of strong net new asset growth, the Firm has reached $7 trillion of client assets across Wealth and Investment Management. Institutional Securities also saw strength across the markets and underwriting businesses. The Morgan Stanley Integrated Firm model is delivering durable results.”

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.