Will 2024 be a bull or bear market?
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.
Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 9.5% in 2024 after increasing around 4% in 2023, LSEG data showed. But valuations have risen along with stock prices.
Recent economic data “validates our theory that 2024 will be the year of rate cuts, and that's very bullish for stocks,” he says.
We would expect a lot of the positive things that helped us last year to continue on and help us this year. We would expect this year to be another strong year in the stock market. We also believe this could be a very bumpy year. There's the wall of worry is very, very tall to say the least.
Third, many Wall Street analysts predict that the S&P 500 will jump in 2024, but with a lower return than last year. Sure, they're guessing, just as I am. However, they think that moderating inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts should be good for stocks.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
Stock Market Forecast 2024: Wall Street Price Targets
Growth is expected to improve in 2024. Analysts are calling for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.5%, Butters says. But not all of Wall Street is convinced.
Highlights: Nominal median U.S. equity market return of 4.2% to 6.2% during the next decade; 4.8%–5.8% median expected return for U.S. fixed income (as of Sept. 30, 2023). Vanguard's latest U.S. equity market return forecast is a touch below where it was a year ago. (The firm presents its forecasts in a range.)
(Bloomberg) -- The S&P 500 will deliver stronger-than-expected earnings in 2024, powered by resilient economic growth and artificial intelligence breakthroughs, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, who are now among Wall Street's most bullish profit forecasters.
How long do bull markets last?
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
Fisher Investments has been named Best Financial Advisory Firm by USA Today and a top adviser by Financial Times, Equities Manager of the Year by MoneyAge and A Top US Registered Investment Adviser by Investment News primarily based on assets under management.
High-net-worth individuals
If you have $500,000 or more to invest and you're looking for a highly personal investing experience, Fisher may be a good fit. You'll get customized advice whenever you need it in every aspect of your financial life from your spending and savings to your investing and retirement planning.
Fisher Investments can be a good choice for those who have already built considerable wealth and now want a professional to take over running their portfolio.
Stocks and bonds may both be poised for success in 2024. Easing inflation and a pivoting Fed should reduce headwinds that have faced both asset classes in recent years. Resilient growth may prove to be an additional tailwind for stocks.
Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.
If the US decisively avoids a recession and achieves a soft landing, then cyclical sectors like materials, industrials, and consumer discretionary could take the lead. If that recession finally does come knocking, then defensive sectors like health care, utilities, and consumer staples could come into favor.
Here's the Growth Stock to Buy Right Now. The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into a bear market in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss for the year.
Expecting another strong year in 2024
Following large front-loaded new issue supply, EM IG spreads are now at attractive levels versus U.S. credit, setting up EM debt for outperformance. Our 2024 macroeconomic base case features slowing inflation and growth cushioned by Fed rate cuts.
Infrastructure capital expenditure should accelerate in 2024, despite a higher cost of capital. Having held up well in 2022, global listed infrastructure underperformed global equities during 2023.
Where will the market be in 5 years?
They point to the fact that the US economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in the coming years and that interest rates are likely to rise. As a result, they expect the S&P 500 to grow by an average of 5-7% per year over the next five years.
Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%. That's higher than Vanguard's 10-year forecast, which ranges from 4.2%–6.2%. “Investors are brimming with confidence going into 2024,” said Xiao Xu, an analyst in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.
Feb 18 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 (. SPX) , opens new tab to 5,200, reflecting roughly a 4% upside from current levels, citing an improved earnings outlook for the index companies.
Returns in the S&P 500 over the coming decade are more likely to be in the 3%-6% range, as multiples and margins are unlikely to expand, leaving sales growth, buybacks, and dividends as the main drivers of appreciation.
The bull market is already well underway
Generally speaking, the best way to be sure about a new bull market is to look for two milestones. First, the market should rise at least 20% from its low. The S&P 500 hit its lowest point on Oct. 12, 2022.
References
- https://finimize.com/content/what-will-sp-500-return-over-next-10-years
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/how-to-invest-bear-market
- https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/600938/bull-markets-10-things-you-must-know
- https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html
- https://www.quora.com/How-did-the-wealthy-maintain-their-wealth-during-the-great-depression
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/goldman-sachs-lifts-2024-sp-500-target-5200-upbeat-profit-outlook-2024-02-19/
- https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/bear-market
- https://www.investopedia.com/timeline-of-stock-market-crashes-5217820
- https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/investor-pulse-optimism-for-2024.html
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fisher-investments-review/
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/what-is-bear-market-2022-06-15/
- https://www.creditkarma.com/investments/i/bear-market-investing-strategies
- https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=overview:bob_farrell_10_rules
- https://pressbooks-dev.oer.hawaii.edu/ushistory/chapter/the-stock-market-crash-of-1929/
- https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zcwxrdm/revision/3
- https://hoover.blogs.archives.gov/2022/06/15/the-great-stock-market-crash-of-1929-why-history-textbooks-and-the-conventional-wisdom-get-it-wrong/
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/best-performing-stocks-of-the-year
- https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/sp-500-forecast-for-next-five-years/
- https://www.investopedia.com/market-milestones-as-the-bull-market-turns-10-4588903
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-stock-market-crash-1929-preceded-great-depression.asp
- https://financhill.com/blog/investing/when-will-the-bear-market-end
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/history-says-the-nasdaq-could-soar-21-in-2024.-heres-the-growth-stock-to-buy-right-now.
- https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/capital-markets-predictions-for-2024
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/08/this-may-be-the-longest-bear-market-in-history/
- https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/fisher-investments-reviews
- https://www.thebalancemoney.com/u-s-stock-bear-markets-and-their-subsequent-recoveries-2388520
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
- https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/how-long-will-it-take-market-recover
- https://investorplace.com/should-i-sell-my-stocks-in-a-bear-market/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/2024-market-predictions-bumpy-landing-for-the-economy.html
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-according-history-long-084300994.html
- https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/google-news-update/why-you-shouldnt-check-your-401k-during-a-bull-market/ab7110e4-028e-4c8f-a925-c218ee4346fd
- https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-ushistory2os2xmaster/chapter/the-stock-market-crash-of-1929/
- https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/videos/fisher-investments-reviews-its-outlook-for-markets-in-2024
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/how-to-invest-during-a-bear-market
- https://www.investing.com/analysis/lessons-from-the-great-depression-200640177
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-strategists-boost-p-500-084952353.html
- https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1929
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/060603.asp
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-to-do-when-stock-market-is-crashing
- https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/what-are-the-three-stages-of-a-bear-market-11654611919330.html
- https://www.fool.com/terms/b/bear-market/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/09/october-effect.asp
- https://www.thestreet.com/video/which-u-s-president-had-the-biggest-impact-on-stock-market-performance
- https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/how-to-profit-from-downward-markets-and-falling-prices-191016
- https://www.cnbc.com/select/pros-of-bear-market-for-new-investors/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-bubble-keep-inflating-until-233122429.html
- https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/05/bear-market-recoveries-todays-market-q3-2023
- https://moneywise.com/investing/reviews/fisher-investments
- https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/are-we-in-a-bull-market-2024
- https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/experts-forecast-stock-bond-returns-2024-edition
- https://www.stash.com/learn/how-long-do-bear-markets-last/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blacktuesday.asp
- https://www.ssa.gov/history/bank.html
- https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/basics/crashes/
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stock-market-forecast-2024/
- https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/overview/
- https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/post/understanding-stock-market-corrections-and-crashes
- https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/buying-stocks/articles/this-is-who-ends-up-rich-when-the-stock-market-crashes/
- https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/stock-market-crash-1987
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/the-great-depression/curriculum/economic-episodes-in-american-history-part-5
- https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/1929-stock-market-crash
- https://www.quora.com/Why-was-money-worthless-in-the-Great-Depression
- https://www.investors.com/news/stock-market-forecast-2024-a-soft-landing-may-not-bring-the-gains-you-expect/
- https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1987
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/bear-market-guide-all-ages/
- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/outlook-sectors
- https://www.nirmalbang.com/knowledge-center/things-to-do-when-stock-market-crashes.html
- https://www.franklintempleton.com/planning-and-learning/learn-about-investing/investing-principles/cost-of-timing-the-market
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/this-stock-market-indicator-has-been-100-accurate-since-1957.-it-signals-a-big-move-in-the
- https://goldsilver.com/blog/heres-how-long-it-really-takes-to-recover-from-stock-market-crashes/
- https://time.com/personal-finance/article/us-stock-market-crashes/
- https://www.sec.gov/about/reports-publications/investor-publications/about-settling-trades-in-three-days-introducing-t-3
- https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/inside-the-10-worst-days-of-dow/
- https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/why-investors-should-consider-emerging-market-bonds-2024.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/09/cash-is-king.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-4582652
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-predictions-for-the-stock-market-in-2024-and-which-stocks-will-soar-the-most-if-theyre
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-money-stock-market-age-150008787.html
- https://www.history.com/news/great-depression-people-who-made-money
- https://www.firstsentierinvestors.com/content/dam/web/fsi/assets/global/insight-articles/2024/global-listed-infrastructure-review-and-outlook-2024.pdf
- https://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/whitepapers/CCWP045.pdf
- https://study.com/learn/lesson/what-caused-the-stock-market-crash-of-1929.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/bear-market-history/
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stock-market-outlook-and-forecast/
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/25/if-you-invested-10000-in-the-sp-500-20-years-ago/
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-end-2024-with-small-gain-after-strong-2023-2024-02-22/