How long did the 1973 bear market last?
The 1973–1974 stock market crash caused a bear market between January 1973 and December 1974.
The 1973–1974 stock market crash caused a bear market between January 1973 and December 1974.
As of now, the longest bear market occurred between 2000 and 2002 and lasted 929 calendar days.
Wall Street Crash of 1929
Stock prices dropped first on the 24th, briefly rallied — and then went into free fall on October 28-29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 25% in those days in an event known as Black Tuesday. Ultimately, the market lost 85% of its value.
The Bear Market of 1973-1974: The Oil Shock
The embargo triggered a shortage of oil and a spike in oil prices that crippled the U.S. economy. It was the most severe bear market the S&P 500 Index suffered in the 20th century until then.
The first and most famous bear market was The Great Depression. The dot com bubble in 2000 and the housing crisis of 2007–2008 are other examples.
The bear market has faded, the S&P 500 gained more in percentages in 2023 than it shed in 2022 -- and so far, the economy has avoided a recession. Let's put that all together to see what it could mean for 2024.
A new bull market begins when the closing price gains 20% from its low. Stocks lose 35% on average in a bear market. By contrast, stocks gain 111% on average during a bull market.
The S&P 500 bull market became official when the index reached a new record high in January 2024. If the current bull market aligns with the historical average, the S&P 500 will rise 21% by October 2024 and it will compound at 25% annually through February 2028.
Keep investing consistently.
By investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals regardless of market conditions, you're more likely to be able to purchase equities at more affordable prices, and potentially see the shares rise in value once the market rebounds.
Why not to sell in a bear market?
If investors sell when the market is down, they will realize an actual loss. A lesson many investors have learned is that if they sit tight and wait for the upturn to come, they won't realize a loss. In fact, they may even see their portfolios gain more value than they had before the downturn.
Since 1929, S&P 500's average bear-market decline stands at 33.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The median drawdown comes to 33.2%.
Next up are a pair of Republican presidents: stocks rose 129% under Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961) and 117% under Ronald Reagan (1981-1989). Rounding out the top five is Democrat Harry S. Truman, who saw the S&P rise 87% during his eight-year term (1945-1953).
Since 1900, the market has had a pattern of crashing every seven to eight years, according to Morningstar and Investopedia. It is not an exact pattern (e.g., no significant crash in 2015), but there seems to be enough data to at least mention it.
The odds of a recession striking in 2024 are 85%, according to one economic model, the highest odds recorded since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. Investors, though, are still feeling pretty optimistic about the market.
As shown above, recovery times vary widely and depend on the economic environment. When bear markets are not accompanied by recession, recoveries from bear markets only took an average of 10 months to reach a new record high.
What is the best strategy in a bear market? A potential strategy in a bear market (or any market) is to buy and hold stocks from major index funds like the S&P 500. Data from Crestmont Research shows that S&P 500 returns in any 20-year period from 1919 to 2022 were positive.
So what is the longest bear market in U.S. history? According to Seeking Alpha — which analyzed every bear market since 1928 — the longest-ever bear market occurred in 1973-74, when it lasted 630 days, or about 21 months. The stock market shed about 48% during that period.
The U.S. economy avoided the recession forecast for 2023. Experts now say a soft landing or mild recession is possible in 2024.
In 2022, U.S. equities suffered their second bear market in three years. Stocks bounced back decisively in 2023, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 20% through July before retreating between August and October. In November, markets recovered, and stocks closed out the year with a sharp rally.
How long do most bear markets last?
A bear market has lasted an average of 14 months. A bull market has had an average lifespan of about 60 months. A bear market has had an average decline of around –33%. A bull market has historically had an average rise of 165%.
But you can maximise your chances of a profit in a bear market by following bearish-friendly strategies. These include diversifying your holdings, focusing on the long-term, taking a short-selling position, trading or investing in 'safe haven' assets and buying at the bottom.
Investing during a bear market isn't always easy but can be a smart move. The stock market isn't as dangerous as it may seem, and by choosing the right stocks and holding those investments for the long term, you can keep your money as safe as possible.
Don't try to catch the bottom: Trying to time the market is generally a losing battle. One thing to keep in mind during bear markets is that you aren't going to invest at the bottom. Buy stocks because you want to own the business for the long term, even if the share price goes down a little more after you buy.
On Holding (NYSE: ONON), Roblox (NYSE: RBLX), and Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) are showing strong business growth that could deliver significant upside in the years to come, according to these Motley Fool contributors.
References
- https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/stock-market-crash-1987
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/what-to-do-when-stock-market-is-crashing
- https://investinghaven.com/forecasts/stock-market-crash-2024/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-markets-bring-us-fortunes-144632982.html
- https://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/teachers/lesson_plans/pdfs/unit9_4.pdf
- https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/600938/bull-markets-10-things-you-must-know
- https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/the-worst-stock-market-crashes-of-all-time-181031
- https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-investing-upside-2025-sp500-record-valuation-outlook-2024-2
- https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/historical-stock-market-patterns-for-investors-to-know
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/13/smart-to-invest-bear-market-warren-buffett/
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnjennings/2023/10/19/black-monday-the-improbable-crash-its-causes-and-timeless-lessons-for-investors/
- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stock-market-up-24-percent-2023-rally/
- https://www.ml.com/articles/7-keys-to-getting-through-a-prolonged-market-downturn.html
- https://www.citizensbank.com/learning/bull-market-vs-bear-market.aspx
- https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/more-bull-market-in-store-for-2024
- https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/us-stock-market-outlook-2024
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
- https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/stock-market-performance-us-president
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp
- https://www.investing.com/analysis/lessons-from-the-great-depression-200640177
- https://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/whitepapers/CCWP045.pdf
- https://www.schwab.co.uk/what-to-expect-bear-market-global-stocks
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/02/14/stock-market-indicator-signals-big-move-in-sp-500/
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/best-investments-stock-market-crash/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackthursday.asp
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-coming-2-unstoppable-124800975.html
- https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-investment-outlooks/
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/12/08/a-bull-market-coming-2024-2-stocks-leave-in-2023/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crash
- https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-recesion-outlook-economy-sp500-bull-market-2024-2
- https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/extreme-winners-take-it-all-while-40-of-stocks-suffer-catastrophic-declines-1.1970035
- https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/worst-performing-stocks-2023
- https://www.axiory.com/trading-resources/stocks/biggest-stock-gainers
- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/business/after-a-rip-roaring-2023-the-markets-are-taking-a-breather.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/060603.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/timeline-of-stock-market-crashes-5217820
- https://study.com/academy/lesson/black-monday-overview-causes-1987-stock-market-crash.html
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-smart-penny-stocks-with-huge-potential
- https://www.thebalancemoney.com/stock-market-crash-of-2008-3305535
- https://finimize.com/content/what-will-sp-500-return-over-next-10-years
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/what-is-a-bull-market/
- https://ethis.co/blog/top-4-money-mistakes-to-avoid-in-a-bear-market/
- https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/youre-age-35-50-or-60-how-much-should-you-have-by-now.html
- https://www.britannica.com/event/stock-market-crash-of-1929
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-long-might-bear-market-recovery-take-tppfg
- https://www.creditkarma.com/investments/i/bear-market-investing-strategies
- https://www.covenantwealthadvisors.com/post/understanding-stock-market-corrections-and-crashes
- https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/economic-forecast-for-next-5-years/
- https://www.ig.com/uk/thematic-basket/bear-markets
- https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/how-long-will-it-take-market-recover
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stock-market-forecast-2024/
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/what-is-bear-market-2022-06-15/
- https://www.marketwatch.com/story/black-monday-still-worst-day-in-dows-history-but-here-are-some-that-came-close-1519b93a
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/021116/3-reasons-not-sell-after-market-downturn.asp
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_crashes_in_India
- https://canvasannuity.com/blog/safest-place-for-retirement-savings
- https://www.pbs.org/fmc/timeline/estockmktcrash.htm
- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/how-to-invest-during-recessions
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-monster-growth-stocks-that-could-explode-in-2024
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/08/this-may-be-the-longest-bear-market-in-history/
- https://www.stash.com/learn/how-long-do-bear-markets-last/
- https://www.history.com/news/great-depression-people-who-made-money
- https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/19/business/stocks-bull-market.html
- https://www.marshmma.com/us/insights/details/should-i-reduce-my-401k-contribution-when-the-market-is-down.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%931974_stock_market_crash
- https://www.fool.com/terms/b/bear-market/
- https://www.nationalgeographic.org/thisday/oct29/black-tuesday/
- https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/experts-forecast-stock-bond-returns-2024-edition
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/deutsche-bank-no-longer-expects-us-recession-2024-2024-02-06/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-stocks-rise-2024-without-002813279.html
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/stock-market-outlook-and-forecast/
- https://time.com/personal-finance/article/bear-vs-bull-market/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/roaring-20s-vs-now-ge-gm-coca-cola-us-steel-and-sears-135843168.html
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/bull-market-view-after-sp-500-hits-fresh-year-high-2023-12-04/
- https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/401ks/articles/how-much-did-401ks-gain
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/how-long-will-this-sp-500-bear-market-last-heres-what-history-says
- https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/01/05/bear-market-recoveries-todays-market-q3-2023
- https://apnews.com/article/bull-stock-market-wall-street-cde5d042da6aa887e7d5ba64b62815ff
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/will-the-stock-market-crash-risk-factors
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/longest-bear-market-us-history-152647191.html
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/10-best-investments-for-2024
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/best-investments/
- https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html
- https://www.waldronpartners.com/blog/how-long-does-it-take-for-the-stock-market-to-recover-from-a-crash
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/how-to-invest-bear-market
- https://blog.stockedge.com/strategic-investments-the-top-5-stocks-for-2024/
- https://www.investopedia.com/about-that-recession-we-were-all-bracing-for-8419748
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/7-stock-winners-that-are-up-1000-or-more-in-2023
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/history-repeats-itself-expect-stock-140000881.html
- https://www.brookings.edu/articles/5-risks-global-economy-2024/
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-incredible-growth-stocks-to-buy-for-2024
- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/19/the-sp-500-is-officially-in-a-bull-market-now-heres-how-long-they-typically-last.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-stock-market-crash-1929-preceded-great-depression.asp
- https://capex.com/en/overview/dow-jones-price-prediction
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
- https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/are-we-in-a-bull-market-2024
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2023/12/27/economic-forecast-for-2024-recession-now-unlikely/
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/investduringbearmarket.asp
- https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-job-market-unemployment-soft-landing-citi-2024-2
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/outlook-overview
- https://www.investors.com/news/stock-market-forecast-2024-a-soft-landing-may-not-bring-the-gains-you-expect/
- https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/01/16/recession-signs-soft-landing-forecasts/72209418007/
- https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/is-a-market-correction-coming.html
- https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/bear-market
- https://hoover.blogs.archives.gov/2022/06/15/the-great-stock-market-crash-of-1929-why-history-textbooks-and-the-conventional-wisdom-get-it-wrong/
- https://www.ucf.edu/news/ucf-economist-recession-keeps-on-slippin-slippin-slippin-into-the-future/
- https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/banks/where-put-money-recession/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/the-us-avoided-a-recession-in-2023-whats-the-outlook-for-2024.html
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-19/us-stock-bulls-ignore-100-years-of-recessions-at-their-peril
- https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/t052-s001-8-facts-you-need-to-know-about-bear-markets/index.html
- https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/biggest-stock-market-crashes-in-history
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/bear-market-history/