After a Rip-Roaring 2023, the Markets Are Taking a Breather (2024)

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After a Rip-Roaring 2023, the Markets Are Taking a Breather? ›

The stock market's long-term path has been persistently upward, our columnist says, but there have been plenty of setbacks and it's wise to prepare for more. Jeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.

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Overall, 2023 was a great year for stocks, as the markets rallied to near-record highs in late December. However, not all companies surged. The year's worst-performing name among the U.S.-listed firms covered by Morningstar analysts was ChargePoint CHPT, which fell 75.5%.

Instead, earnings may drip down slowly throughout 2023, frustrating market bears. Interest rates on long-term bonds have fallen lower than those of short-term bonds, creating an inverted yield curve that usually portends an upcoming economic slowdown.

Most major indexes were able to erase their losses from a dismal 2022. Smaller company stocks had a late rally, but managed to erase the bulk of their losses from last year. The Russell 2000 index finished 2023 with a 15.1% gain after falling 21.6% in 2022.

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It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.

With stock indexes at all-time highs, it seems we are in the midst of a new bull market. While much of the market's recent gains have come from a handful of stocks, the rally has begun to broaden in recent months. Expectations of an earnings rebound in 2024 suggest earnings could continue to drive the market higher.

AppLovin Corporation, the top-performing stock of 2023, surged 258%. NovoCure Limited, the lowest-performing stock, plunged 82%. Top-performing stocks were in the technology sector, which benefited from the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and expanding digital services.

At what age should you get out of the stock market? ›

There are no set ages to get into or to get out of the stock market. While older clients may want to reduce their investing risk as they age, this doesn't necessarily mean they should be totally out of the stock market.

Analysts project 11.5% earnings growth and 5.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in 2024. Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year.

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

Earnings Rebound

Analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth will accelerate to 9.7% in the second quarter and S&P 500 companies will report an impressive 10.8% earnings growth for the full calendar year in 2024.

Let's review the good times of late 2023. The S&P 500, which tracks the most valuable stocks in the U.S. market, rose 11.2 percent in the last quarter — and had a total return of 11.7 percent, including dividends. For the year, it gained 24.2 percent and returned 26.3 percent, including dividends.

The updated Dow Jones price prediction for the next 5 years is for the index to trade around 45,000 points. Long Forecast predicts Dow Jones to trade above 40,000 points in the second half of 2024 and and advance up to 44,000 points by the end of the year. This is the most bullish Dow Jones forecast for 2024.

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